Table 2: Private-Sector Forecasts for FY 2000

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(percent change unless otherwise indicated)

FY 2000
Real GDP

Real Consumer
Spending

Real Capital
Spending

Real
Government
Investment

Current Account
Surplus*

Unemployment
Rate

Consumer
Prices

Banks

Nippon Trust Bank, Ltd.

1.5%

1.6%

5.0%

-3.7%

¥13.3

4.5%

0.2%

Daiwa Bank, Ltd.

1.4

1.7

1.0

-0.7

11.4

n.a.

0.0

Fuji Bank, Ltd.

1.1

1.0

3.6

-2.8

12.6

5.0

0.2

Tokai Bank, Ltd.

1.1

1.8

0.8

-0.6

13.7

4.8

0.2

Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank, Ltd.

1.0

1.2

3.0

0.6

10.2

4.8

-0.1

Mitsubishi Trust & Banking Corp.

1.0

0.6

2.9

-0.7

12.5

4.4

0.1

Norinchukin Bank

1.0

1.5

0.1

0.0

13.3

n.a.

-0.1

Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co., Ltd.

1.0

1.0

3.2

-1.4

13.3

4.7

0.0

Sakura Bank, Ltd.

0.9

1.0

0.2

-1.2

14.5

5.0

0.1

Mitsui Trust & Banking Co., Ltd.

0.8

1.4

-0.8

0.3

12.5

n.a.

0.1

Industrial Bank of Japan, Ltd.

0.6

0.8

-0.6

0.9

12.4

4.8

0.2

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, Ltd.

0.5

0.5

-2.7

n.a.

14.6

n.a.

-0.1

Bank of Yokohama, Ltd.

0.4

0.6

-0.8

-2.0

12.5

5.4

-0.2

Asahi Bank, Ltd.

0.3

0.9

-0.8

-2.9

11.0

5.2

0.1

Sanwa Bank, Ltd.

0.3

0.0

-0.4

-2.7

12.1

5.3

-0.1

Toyo Trust and Banking Co., Ltd.

0.3

0.7

-0.1

2.3

10.4

4.9

-0.3

Insurance Companies

Dai-Ichi Mutual Life Insurance Co.

2.1%

1.7%

3.9%

-1.8%

¥11.7

4.7%

0.0%

Asahi Mutual Life Insurance Co.

1.4

1.6

1.6

0.7

11.9

4.8

-0.2

Meiji Life Insurance Co.

0.9

0.8

0.1

2.6

12.8

4.9

-0.3

Tokio Marine & Fire Insurance Co., Ltd.

0.6

0.8

3.1

0.6

11.8

4.9

0.0

Sumitomo Life Insurance Co.

0.2

0.3

1.2

-4.0

9.7

4.9

-0.1

Trading Companies

Sumitomo Corp.

1.5%

1.6%

1.9%

-2.5%

¥9.7

5.3%

0.0%

Marubeni Corp.

1.2

1.4

2.2

-2.7

13.9

4.9

-0.1

Mitsubishi Corp.

1.2

1.2

1.7

1.1

11.6

n.a.

0.1

Securities Companies and Research Organizations

Daiwa Institute of Research

1.7%

1.9%

7.9%

-4.7%

¥9.9

5.0%

0.0%

Research Institute of the National Economy

1.5

0.8

6.1

-0.9

10.3

5.1

0.2

Waco Economic Research Institute

1.3

1.9

0.1

3.0

12.1

4.9

0.1

Japan Research Center

1.2

1.4

-2.5

1.1

13.2

5.2

-0.2

Kankaku Research Institute

1.0

1.3

2.7

-3.9

10.8

4.2

-0.2

Okasan Economic Research Institute

1.0

1.4

-0.3

-1.9

14.2

4.8

0.0.

Japan Center for Economic Research

0.9

1.8

0.3

-2.2

11.0

5.2

0.1

Mitsubishi Research Institute

0.9

0.8

-1.4

4.4

13.0

n.a.

-0.1

Dai-Ichi Securities Co., Ltd.

0.7

-0.1

-0.2

9.9

n.a.

5.1

-0.3

Kokusai Securities Co., Ltd.

0.7

0.4

-3.2

5.8

14.0

5.2

-0.2

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.

0.7

0.9

-1.2

3.9

10.9

5.1

-0.1

Kansai Economic Research Center

0.5

1.1

1.9

-2.5

12.6

5.1

0.2

Average Forecast

1.0

1.1

1.1

-0.2

12.5

4.9

-0.2

Calendar-Year Forecasts

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

1.4%

1.6%

-0.6%

-1.5%

¥19.3**

4.7%

n.a.

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co.

-1.1

-0.4

-8.1

5.9

14.7

n.a.

n.a.

Average Forecast

0.15

0.6

-4.3

2.2

17.0

n.a.

n.a.

*In trillions of yen.
**Estimate based on forecast data.

"0.9% No 'Yuruyaka Seicho' Jizoku (0.9% 'Modest Growth' Continues)," Toyo Keizai Tokei Geppo, February 2000, pp. 10-16, and the organizations listed.

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